the 2020-21 nba season is over and the offseason is here, which means it’s been pretty much a full year since i started medium lights.
so far, i’ve been writing for an audience of one: me. i rarely check how many views and likes each post gets, or how many email subscribers i have. i definitely haven’t been involving you, the readers, in my process at all.
but perhaps that should change. because i just looked and there are ~700 of you now, which seems like a large number.
maybe there’s a specific play/set/moment that you want me to break down. you might have a favorite player(s) that you want me to write about. or there’s some narrative/question that you’d like my opinion on. for example:
“should quin snyder have subbed rudy gobert out in game 6 against the clippers?”
“who was a better passer, john stockton or steve nash?”
“how good is ben simmons, really?”
“if you could re-do one injury ‘what-if’, like ‘what if [player] never got injured’, which player’s career would you re-do?”
whatever it is, ask your question(s) by leaving a comment and i’ll turn the best ones into posts!
hi in your rookies adjusting to the nba post, u mentioned that off-ball defense for big men is the hardest transition from college to the nba- even comparing to playing a different sport.
could u elaborate on y that is? r college defenses that much simpler than the nba?
2. there's way more athleticism and skill in the nba game. great shooters means there's a ton of space, great athletes and skill means almost anyone can exploit it. bigs have to cover a ton of ground in the nba - knowing where to be and getting there on time is a requirement, and that's not easy. if you're late by even half a second, it's a bucket (or at least a good look, which is usually a bucket).
3. if you're even slightly clueless on defense, nba teams will literally hone in on you and destroy you. pretty much the entire nba game is about finding and exploiting advantageous matchups. if you can't defend a pick and roll in space, you'll be put in one over and over again. if you can't defend a quicker guard, you'll be switched onto him repeatedly. unless you're on a terrible/tanking team, your leash won't be very long as a big who can't defend because you're just hemorrhaging points - so you won't even have the opportunity to learn through game experience before your ass is on the bench.
4. offensive sets aren't more advanced in the nba, but players are much better executors of them. recognizing opponent sets takes reps, and you can look really bad when you miss a switch, rotate late, don't step up high enough on a shooter, don't drop when you're supposed to, etc. that stuff all takes time.
Very glad to have run into your newsletter. I just watched your most recent Youtube video "the most popular play in the nba". Where do you get all those clips from? I am specifically interested to know if you know of a way to access recordings of games from the past. Thanks!
some just from watching games live and making mental notes of timestamps when interesting plays happened, then going back and finding them in the post-game highlight videos on youtube and cutting them out.
not the best fit on paper. russ isn't a great shooter. he's been a pretty awful off-the-ball offensive player (not even in that he's bad at it, he literally hasn't been doing it). and he's always been a gigantic net negative defender (the notion that he's ever been good or even close to good on defense is so strange).
now with all of that said... roles and environments play an enormous part in how athletes perform, or at least how they give effort. it'd be naive to think a player of russ' caliber can't adapt to fit in on a winning team that requires it.
also, the bottom line with the los angeles lakers is simple: are lebron james and anthony davis healthy and still elite? if yes, they're undoubtedly a top-3 team in the league, with or without westbrook. if not, i'm not sure anything else even matters much.
going to the finals requires you to have top talent, and teams that already have top talent making the finals wouldn't really be "out-of-nowhere" (e.g. the denver nuggets, the los angeles clippers, the golden state warriors, etc.) and teams that don't yet have top talent but could potentially acquire it are fairly unpredictable (e.g. not sure how someone could've predicted chris paul going to the phoenix suns in 2018).
with all of that said, i'll go with the new york knicks or chicago bulls.
I know there's aspects of the game that are amazing, a great OOB play or full court ball movement but I find it's getting a little boring/predictable seeing so many teams being so reliant on shooting the 3. Have you found this basketball a little more unenjoyable or any advice on more interesting things to look for during a normal regular season game?
personally yes, i would much prefer to watch a more physical, grind-it-out game. i often find myself somewhat bored with regular season basketball as well.
not sure what advice i can give here, the game just is what it is until the nba starts changing some rules. maybe find some incentive to tune in, like playing fantasy sports or betting on games, so you have some skin in the action? 🤷🏻♂️
Great newsletter brother, it's clear you are a real fan of the game and its rich history, and watch a lot of film as well. Similar to your Jrue Holiday article, you could make a list of players (past or current) who you think need more appreciation, and create an All-Medium-Lights team as a sort of alternative/supplement to the NBA end of season awards.
i did attempt to come up with something like all-medium-lights teams (1st team most-underrated, 2nd team, etc.) but i realized it's very difficult because:
1. it's tough to quantify the "underratedness" of two completely different players
2. even with the amount of basketball i watch, it's impossible to watch enough to get a good feel for every role player on every team, so i'll miss a bunch, and i probably have a lot of biases towards the players i watch more of
so i think for the moment i'll pass on that for now.
i'll certainly try to write more profiles/appreciation posts for the players i love though - stay tuned for those!
1. D'Angelo Russell is an excellent passer. But can he still develop into an elite playmaker?
2. Would you consider making YouTube video essays on basketball? Like Thinking Basketball or one of those simpler channels that break down plays here and there. I'd be super excited to watch that!
3. Is Matisse Thybulle already a top 10 defender in the league? Does his on-ball defense make him overrated, such that his team defense needs work for him to reach top 10 status?
1. definitely. i mean, i think he's already a really good playmaker. there are times when he throws overly optimistic passes that lead to turnovers, but i'm not too bothered by it because the ones that do get through basically lead to automatic points. he's just a higher-risk-higher-reward type of passer.
2. never say never, but probably not anytime soon. making videos is a different level of work!
3. i love matisse, but he's not in the top 10 yet. i think you hit the nail on the head with team defense. and yeah tisse's numbers are awesome but the difference in roles also has to be factored in (e.g. if kawhi played 20 minutes per game and in those minutes his only responsibility was to exert 100% of his effort on defense and shoot a few wide open threes, i guarantee you his defensive numbers would be fucking insane).
Just wanted to pre-face by saying I really love reading your newsletter!
My question would be - would trading for Ben Simmons definitively make the Warriors (or any other team for that matter) better? Taking into account who they would have to give up (and the subsequent rotations the coach would have to come up with) as well as the salary they would have to take on (so it would be hard justifying benching Simmons).
Thanks for the fantastic newsletter! Two questions:
1) The box-and-one defense. What is it, and how can teams use it effectively?
2) Teams like Phoenix thrived last year using base sets like the Spain pick and roll. If you were to highlight a similar medium lights-esque strategy to watch for as possibly emergent in the coming NBA season, what would it be?
Also, the box-and-one. What is it, and when can it be effective?
1. the box-and-one is a mix between a man and zone defense, where 1 of your defenders is in man (against the opponent's best offensive player, following him wherever he goes) and the other 4 are in a supporting zone (the box) behind him.
it's typically used in short spurts against a team with one dominant scoring threat - the goal being to slow that player down temporarily in hopes his teammates struggle to score against your 4 person zone.
the popular example is when the toronto raptors used it against steph curry after both klay thompson and kevin durant were out of the game with injuries and the golden state warriors didn't score for ~5 minutes.
Was Anthony Edwards rookie season during a pandemic and a coaching change vastly underrated? One could state his competition towards a ROY against a tall pg with a year of overseas lower level professional experience with a greatly improved team would speak to this but considering his age and the year.....jeez is he not talked about enough?
Is Ben Simmon shooting with the wrong hand and does he have the work ethic to ever build a shot?
My personal belief based on the information I’ve gathered is yes, he’s shooting with the wrong hand based on what appears to be his dominant hand from floaters and layups, and no, he’s shown he does not have the work ethic based on comments from his teammates and his remarks to reporters “I’m already an all-star”.
This isn’t really down your medium-lights alley, but you’re fantastic at noticing subtle on-court nuances and piecing collectives of information together into a narrative, so I wanted to throw this your way.
hi in your rookies adjusting to the nba post, u mentioned that off-ball defense for big men is the hardest transition from college to the nba- even comparing to playing a different sport.
could u elaborate on y that is? r college defenses that much simpler than the nba?
good question. it's a combination of things:
1. there's no defensive 3-seconds in high school and college. many bigs are used to just camping in the lane and calling that rim protection. they're not used to "2.9": https://mediumlights.substack.com/p/james-harden-taking-advantage-of
2. there's way more athleticism and skill in the nba game. great shooters means there's a ton of space, great athletes and skill means almost anyone can exploit it. bigs have to cover a ton of ground in the nba - knowing where to be and getting there on time is a requirement, and that's not easy. if you're late by even half a second, it's a bucket (or at least a good look, which is usually a bucket).
3. if you're even slightly clueless on defense, nba teams will literally hone in on you and destroy you. pretty much the entire nba game is about finding and exploiting advantageous matchups. if you can't defend a pick and roll in space, you'll be put in one over and over again. if you can't defend a quicker guard, you'll be switched onto him repeatedly. unless you're on a terrible/tanking team, your leash won't be very long as a big who can't defend because you're just hemorrhaging points - so you won't even have the opportunity to learn through game experience before your ass is on the bench.
4. offensive sets aren't more advanced in the nba, but players are much better executors of them. recognizing opponent sets takes reps, and you can look really bad when you miss a switch, rotate late, don't step up high enough on a shooter, don't drop when you're supposed to, etc. that stuff all takes time.
Do you play fantasy basketball? If so, what format is your favorite and how have you fared?
i don't play fantasy basketball anymore. i do bet on games occasionally though.
when i did play fantasy, my favorite format was auction draft / h2h each category.
Man of culture. Did you drop it b/c it was too consuming? lol
pretty much. fantasy basketball (if you're serious about it) is a daily commitment.
Very glad to have run into your newsletter. I just watched your most recent Youtube video "the most popular play in the nba". Where do you get all those clips from? I am specifically interested to know if you know of a way to access recordings of games from the past. Thanks!
some just from watching games live and making mental notes of timestamps when interesting plays happened, then going back and finding them in the post-game highlight videos on youtube and cutting them out.
others from great resources like https://www.the-high-low.com/.
also quick shoutout to https://twitter.com/3ball_, which was awesome but no longer exists. r.i.p.
Will Westbrook bring a championship to La and is he a good fit?
not the best fit on paper. russ isn't a great shooter. he's been a pretty awful off-the-ball offensive player (not even in that he's bad at it, he literally hasn't been doing it). and he's always been a gigantic net negative defender (the notion that he's ever been good or even close to good on defense is so strange).
now with all of that said... roles and environments play an enormous part in how athletes perform, or at least how they give effort. it'd be naive to think a player of russ' caliber can't adapt to fit in on a winning team that requires it.
also, the bottom line with the los angeles lakers is simple: are lebron james and anthony davis healthy and still elite? if yes, they're undoubtedly a top-3 team in the league, with or without westbrook. if not, i'm not sure anything else even matters much.
Thanks for answering! I totally agree with the bottom line for the Lakers. Healthy is wealthy haha.
Who is the most out-of-nowhere team that you believe has a chance to make the Finals in the next 3 years?
tough question to answer.
going to the finals requires you to have top talent, and teams that already have top talent making the finals wouldn't really be "out-of-nowhere" (e.g. the denver nuggets, the los angeles clippers, the golden state warriors, etc.) and teams that don't yet have top talent but could potentially acquire it are fairly unpredictable (e.g. not sure how someone could've predicted chris paul going to the phoenix suns in 2018).
with all of that said, i'll go with the new york knicks or chicago bulls.
I know there's aspects of the game that are amazing, a great OOB play or full court ball movement but I find it's getting a little boring/predictable seeing so many teams being so reliant on shooting the 3. Have you found this basketball a little more unenjoyable or any advice on more interesting things to look for during a normal regular season game?
personally yes, i would much prefer to watch a more physical, grind-it-out game. i often find myself somewhat bored with regular season basketball as well.
not sure what advice i can give here, the game just is what it is until the nba starts changing some rules. maybe find some incentive to tune in, like playing fantasy sports or betting on games, so you have some skin in the action? 🤷🏻♂️
Great newsletter brother, it's clear you are a real fan of the game and its rich history, and watch a lot of film as well. Similar to your Jrue Holiday article, you could make a list of players (past or current) who you think need more appreciation, and create an All-Medium-Lights team as a sort of alternative/supplement to the NBA end of season awards.
appreciate the kind words, and great suggestion.
i did attempt to come up with something like all-medium-lights teams (1st team most-underrated, 2nd team, etc.) but i realized it's very difficult because:
1. it's tough to quantify the "underratedness" of two completely different players
2. even with the amount of basketball i watch, it's impossible to watch enough to get a good feel for every role player on every team, so i'll miss a bunch, and i probably have a lot of biases towards the players i watch more of
so i think for the moment i'll pass on that for now.
i'll certainly try to write more profiles/appreciation posts for the players i love though - stay tuned for those!
Thanks so much for a great newsletter! I've
a few questions:
1. D'Angelo Russell is an excellent passer. But can he still develop into an elite playmaker?
2. Would you consider making YouTube video essays on basketball? Like Thinking Basketball or one of those simpler channels that break down plays here and there. I'd be super excited to watch that!
3. Is Matisse Thybulle already a top 10 defender in the league? Does his on-ball defense make him overrated, such that his team defense needs work for him to reach top 10 status?
thanks for reading!
1. definitely. i mean, i think he's already a really good playmaker. there are times when he throws overly optimistic passes that lead to turnovers, but i'm not too bothered by it because the ones that do get through basically lead to automatic points. he's just a higher-risk-higher-reward type of passer.
2. never say never, but probably not anytime soon. making videos is a different level of work!
3. i love matisse, but he's not in the top 10 yet. i think you hit the nail on the head with team defense. and yeah tisse's numbers are awesome but the difference in roles also has to be factored in (e.g. if kawhi played 20 minutes per game and in those minutes his only responsibility was to exert 100% of his effort on defense and shoot a few wide open threes, i guarantee you his defensive numbers would be fucking insane).
Awesome! Thanks for your reply and analysis :)
Just wanted to pre-face by saying I really love reading your newsletter!
My question would be - would trading for Ben Simmons definitively make the Warriors (or any other team for that matter) better? Taking into account who they would have to give up (and the subsequent rotations the coach would have to come up with) as well as the salary they would have to take on (so it would be hard justifying benching Simmons).
https://mediumlights.substack.com/p/im-buying-ben-simmons-stock
Thanks for the fantastic newsletter! Two questions:
1) The box-and-one defense. What is it, and how can teams use it effectively?
2) Teams like Phoenix thrived last year using base sets like the Spain pick and roll. If you were to highlight a similar medium lights-esque strategy to watch for as possibly emergent in the coming NBA season, what would it be?
Also, the box-and-one. What is it, and when can it be effective?
appreciate the kind words!
1. the box-and-one is a mix between a man and zone defense, where 1 of your defenders is in man (against the opponent's best offensive player, following him wherever he goes) and the other 4 are in a supporting zone (the box) behind him.
it's typically used in short spurts against a team with one dominant scoring threat - the goal being to slow that player down temporarily in hopes his teammates struggle to score against your 4 person zone.
the popular example is when the toronto raptors used it against steph curry after both klay thompson and kevin durant were out of the game with injuries and the golden state warriors didn't score for ~5 minutes.
2. pin-and-roll into a pin-down to attack drop coverage: https://youtu.be/A3pKXuomUPg
Was Anthony Edwards rookie season during a pandemic and a coaching change vastly underrated? One could state his competition towards a ROY against a tall pg with a year of overseas lower level professional experience with a greatly improved team would speak to this but considering his age and the year.....jeez is he not talked about enough?
https://mediumlights.substack.com/p/rookies-adjusting-to-the-nba
Is Ben Simmon shooting with the wrong hand and does he have the work ethic to ever build a shot?
My personal belief based on the information I’ve gathered is yes, he’s shooting with the wrong hand based on what appears to be his dominant hand from floaters and layups, and no, he’s shown he does not have the work ethic based on comments from his teammates and his remarks to reporters “I’m already an all-star”.
This isn’t really down your medium-lights alley, but you’re fantastic at noticing subtle on-court nuances and piecing collectives of information together into a narrative, so I wanted to throw this your way.
https://mediumlights.substack.com/p/im-buying-ben-simmons-stock
Do you think a playstyle where 1 player has 35%+ usage rate is a decent winning strategy even for players like Luka and Harden?
Obviously you'd prefer to have 3 superstars on a team, but I mean from the perspective of lets say Dallas right now.
https://mediumlights.substack.com/p/high-usage-rates
https://mediumlights.substack.com/p/players-that-struggle-in-the-playoffs